What does HRV actually tell me?
Heart-rate variability is worth watching against your own rolling baseline and close to meaningless compared with anyone else — the spread between healthy people is so wide that one person’s normal is another’s alarming. A single reading tells you very little; a run of readings well below your own average is a signal worth acting on.
It reflects a great deal more than training: sleep, alcohol, illness, stress and the time you took the reading all move it.
Why
The most common mistake is treating HRV as a score to beat. It is not a performance measure and a higher number is not automatically better — it is a rough indicator of where your autonomic nervous system is sitting relative to where it usually sits.
Compare it to yourself, over days. A rolling baseline and a meaningful departure from it is the only reading that supports a decision.
Resting heart rate is a reasonable substitute. If HRV is not available or looks noisy, a resting heart rate several beats above your own baseline carries similar information and is more stable.
Know the limits. The evidence on how much a change in either measure can actually tell you about training status is the reason Train Smart nudges the day rather than rewriting the week.
In Train Smart these adjust the day's working sets rather than issuing a verdict — the readings inform the prescription, they do not replace it.
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